‘We are there’ says infectious disease expert about cancelling large gatherings in Hamilton

News Mar 13, 2020 by Joanna Frketich The Hamilton Spectator

A prominent infectious disease expert is disputing the Hamilton public health department's message that "we're not there yet" when it comes to cancelling large gatherings in this area.

"We are there," said Dr. Mark Loeb, division director of infectious disease at McMaster University and an internationally-known researcher.

"Now is the time to do it. Don't start four weeks from now. It will be too late. That is my own view."

There were 74 confirmed cases of COVID-19 in Ontario on Thursday, up from 54 the day before.

There were no new cases at 10:30 a.m. Friday in Hamilton and Halton for the first time in three days.

Hamilton and Halton's first case — a 32-year-old Juravinski Cancer Centre oncologist who lives in Burlington and travelled to Hawaii — was announced Wednesday. On Thursday, health officials said two more area residents tested positive: a 52-year-old Hamilton man and an Oakville woman in her 40s. Both had recently travelled to the United States.

On Thursday, Ontario made the unprecedented move of closing schools for two weeks following March break to stop the spread of COVID-19 and also postponed jury trials.

By Friday, a number of universities including McMaster had cancelled in-person classes and exams while the province recommended against gatherings of 250 people or more.

"It's good policy," said Loeb. "Right now is the time to be extremely proactive."

The reasoning behind the position Hamilton public health took Thursday in not recommending the cancelling of large gatherings is that this area does not have what is known as "free community spread." That happens when public health officials can no longer identify where the person caught the virus.

Since it's known how all three area people contracted COVID-19, it is not thought to be circulating in the community.

But Loeb believes coronavirus does have community spread in Ontario now.

"I think undoubtedly there is community transmission," said Loeb. "It's not being detected ... The testing is not keeping up with the demand."

He applauded sports organizations and other groups for cancelling games, tournaments, meetings and events.

"Why they cancel large gatherings is because it's being responsible," he said. "Those large gathering are opportunities for people to mingle and potentially transmit coronavirus."

He said Hamilton doctors have even started avoiding smaller gatherings if possible.

"Us as physicians in the hospital we don't want corona transmission among doctors so we're being very careful," he said. "We're saying, 'We're not going to have our next infectious disease meeting as a face-to-face meeting. We're going to teleconference.'"

Loeb said distancing from others won't stop all transmission of COVID-19 but it could stop Ontario's already overcrowded hospitals from being overwhelmed by a surge of patients.

Called "flattening the curve," it reduces the concentration of cases happening over a narrow period of time.

"We do not want a situation like in Northern Italy where they are faced with an overwhelming crisis because there hasn't been any mitigation strategies," he said. "Now is the time to do it. You don't do it when your ICUs (intensive care units) are all full and the system is on overwhelm which is what happened in Italy."

He called Italy, "A devastating situation where the ICUs were logjammed with really ill people."

He says it's important for Hamilton and Ontario to take note of how Italy's health-care system was overwhelmed so it doesn't happen here.

"It was clear there would have been community transmission going on widespread for a while," he said. "All of these interventions weren't done way ahead of time. We have to learn from other countries' experience. It's not just me saying this. It's the World Health Organization."

He said the steps to mitigate COVID-19 are "pretty basic."

• Avoid large gatherings;

• Don't have contact with sick people;

• Wash your hand frequently for at least 10 seconds;

• Don't shake hands;

•Stay home when sick.

"It's true that doing these strategies is not going to put an end to the pandemic," he said.

But it could make a big difference in how it plays out here.

"It just makes sense," he said. "You are putting effort upfront to avoid a pretty drastic situation."

The other contrasting information has been when someone can transmit the virus with Halton public health saying Wednesday that it is when symptoms appear while Hamilton public health said Thursday they are looking at 24 hours prior out of an abundance of caution.

"When a person develops symptoms they can transmit," said Loeb. "That would be the time of concern."

He said there isn't agreement in the medical community yet about before symptoms appear.

"There is a bit of a controversy about ... people who don't have any symptoms to what extent can they spread the virus," said Loeb. "There is still some controversy over that."

‘We are there’ says infectious disease expert about cancelling large gatherings in Hamilton

‘Now is the time to do it. Don’t start four weeks from now. It will be too late,’ say prominent infectious disease researcher disputing Hamilton public health department’s message.

News Mar 13, 2020 by Joanna Frketich The Hamilton Spectator

A prominent infectious disease expert is disputing the Hamilton public health department's message that "we're not there yet" when it comes to cancelling large gatherings in this area.

"We are there," said Dr. Mark Loeb, division director of infectious disease at McMaster University and an internationally-known researcher.

"Now is the time to do it. Don't start four weeks from now. It will be too late. That is my own view."

Related Content

There were 74 confirmed cases of COVID-19 in Ontario on Thursday, up from 54 the day before.

There were no new cases at 10:30 a.m. Friday in Hamilton and Halton for the first time in three days.

Hamilton and Halton's first case — a 32-year-old Juravinski Cancer Centre oncologist who lives in Burlington and travelled to Hawaii — was announced Wednesday. On Thursday, health officials said two more area residents tested positive: a 52-year-old Hamilton man and an Oakville woman in her 40s. Both had recently travelled to the United States.

On Thursday, Ontario made the unprecedented move of closing schools for two weeks following March break to stop the spread of COVID-19 and also postponed jury trials.

By Friday, a number of universities including McMaster had cancelled in-person classes and exams while the province recommended against gatherings of 250 people or more.

"It's good policy," said Loeb. "Right now is the time to be extremely proactive."

The reasoning behind the position Hamilton public health took Thursday in not recommending the cancelling of large gatherings is that this area does not have what is known as "free community spread." That happens when public health officials can no longer identify where the person caught the virus.

Since it's known how all three area people contracted COVID-19, it is not thought to be circulating in the community.

But Loeb believes coronavirus does have community spread in Ontario now.

"I think undoubtedly there is community transmission," said Loeb. "It's not being detected ... The testing is not keeping up with the demand."

He applauded sports organizations and other groups for cancelling games, tournaments, meetings and events.

"Why they cancel large gatherings is because it's being responsible," he said. "Those large gathering are opportunities for people to mingle and potentially transmit coronavirus."

He said Hamilton doctors have even started avoiding smaller gatherings if possible.

"Us as physicians in the hospital we don't want corona transmission among doctors so we're being very careful," he said. "We're saying, 'We're not going to have our next infectious disease meeting as a face-to-face meeting. We're going to teleconference.'"

Loeb said distancing from others won't stop all transmission of COVID-19 but it could stop Ontario's already overcrowded hospitals from being overwhelmed by a surge of patients.

Called "flattening the curve," it reduces the concentration of cases happening over a narrow period of time.

"We do not want a situation like in Northern Italy where they are faced with an overwhelming crisis because there hasn't been any mitigation strategies," he said. "Now is the time to do it. You don't do it when your ICUs (intensive care units) are all full and the system is on overwhelm which is what happened in Italy."

He called Italy, "A devastating situation where the ICUs were logjammed with really ill people."

He says it's important for Hamilton and Ontario to take note of how Italy's health-care system was overwhelmed so it doesn't happen here.

"It was clear there would have been community transmission going on widespread for a while," he said. "All of these interventions weren't done way ahead of time. We have to learn from other countries' experience. It's not just me saying this. It's the World Health Organization."

He said the steps to mitigate COVID-19 are "pretty basic."

• Avoid large gatherings;

• Don't have contact with sick people;

• Wash your hand frequently for at least 10 seconds;

• Don't shake hands;

•Stay home when sick.

"It's true that doing these strategies is not going to put an end to the pandemic," he said.

But it could make a big difference in how it plays out here.

"It just makes sense," he said. "You are putting effort upfront to avoid a pretty drastic situation."

The other contrasting information has been when someone can transmit the virus with Halton public health saying Wednesday that it is when symptoms appear while Hamilton public health said Thursday they are looking at 24 hours prior out of an abundance of caution.

"When a person develops symptoms they can transmit," said Loeb. "That would be the time of concern."

He said there isn't agreement in the medical community yet about before symptoms appear.

"There is a bit of a controversy about ... people who don't have any symptoms to what extent can they spread the virus," said Loeb. "There is still some controversy over that."

‘We are there’ says infectious disease expert about cancelling large gatherings in Hamilton

‘Now is the time to do it. Don’t start four weeks from now. It will be too late,’ say prominent infectious disease researcher disputing Hamilton public health department’s message.

News Mar 13, 2020 by Joanna Frketich The Hamilton Spectator

A prominent infectious disease expert is disputing the Hamilton public health department's message that "we're not there yet" when it comes to cancelling large gatherings in this area.

"We are there," said Dr. Mark Loeb, division director of infectious disease at McMaster University and an internationally-known researcher.

"Now is the time to do it. Don't start four weeks from now. It will be too late. That is my own view."

Related Content

There were 74 confirmed cases of COVID-19 in Ontario on Thursday, up from 54 the day before.

There were no new cases at 10:30 a.m. Friday in Hamilton and Halton for the first time in three days.

Hamilton and Halton's first case — a 32-year-old Juravinski Cancer Centre oncologist who lives in Burlington and travelled to Hawaii — was announced Wednesday. On Thursday, health officials said two more area residents tested positive: a 52-year-old Hamilton man and an Oakville woman in her 40s. Both had recently travelled to the United States.

On Thursday, Ontario made the unprecedented move of closing schools for two weeks following March break to stop the spread of COVID-19 and also postponed jury trials.

By Friday, a number of universities including McMaster had cancelled in-person classes and exams while the province recommended against gatherings of 250 people or more.

"It's good policy," said Loeb. "Right now is the time to be extremely proactive."

The reasoning behind the position Hamilton public health took Thursday in not recommending the cancelling of large gatherings is that this area does not have what is known as "free community spread." That happens when public health officials can no longer identify where the person caught the virus.

Since it's known how all three area people contracted COVID-19, it is not thought to be circulating in the community.

But Loeb believes coronavirus does have community spread in Ontario now.

"I think undoubtedly there is community transmission," said Loeb. "It's not being detected ... The testing is not keeping up with the demand."

He applauded sports organizations and other groups for cancelling games, tournaments, meetings and events.

"Why they cancel large gatherings is because it's being responsible," he said. "Those large gathering are opportunities for people to mingle and potentially transmit coronavirus."

He said Hamilton doctors have even started avoiding smaller gatherings if possible.

"Us as physicians in the hospital we don't want corona transmission among doctors so we're being very careful," he said. "We're saying, 'We're not going to have our next infectious disease meeting as a face-to-face meeting. We're going to teleconference.'"

Loeb said distancing from others won't stop all transmission of COVID-19 but it could stop Ontario's already overcrowded hospitals from being overwhelmed by a surge of patients.

Called "flattening the curve," it reduces the concentration of cases happening over a narrow period of time.

"We do not want a situation like in Northern Italy where they are faced with an overwhelming crisis because there hasn't been any mitigation strategies," he said. "Now is the time to do it. You don't do it when your ICUs (intensive care units) are all full and the system is on overwhelm which is what happened in Italy."

He called Italy, "A devastating situation where the ICUs were logjammed with really ill people."

He says it's important for Hamilton and Ontario to take note of how Italy's health-care system was overwhelmed so it doesn't happen here.

"It was clear there would have been community transmission going on widespread for a while," he said. "All of these interventions weren't done way ahead of time. We have to learn from other countries' experience. It's not just me saying this. It's the World Health Organization."

He said the steps to mitigate COVID-19 are "pretty basic."

• Avoid large gatherings;

• Don't have contact with sick people;

• Wash your hand frequently for at least 10 seconds;

• Don't shake hands;

•Stay home when sick.

"It's true that doing these strategies is not going to put an end to the pandemic," he said.

But it could make a big difference in how it plays out here.

"It just makes sense," he said. "You are putting effort upfront to avoid a pretty drastic situation."

The other contrasting information has been when someone can transmit the virus with Halton public health saying Wednesday that it is when symptoms appear while Hamilton public health said Thursday they are looking at 24 hours prior out of an abundance of caution.

"When a person develops symptoms they can transmit," said Loeb. "That would be the time of concern."

He said there isn't agreement in the medical community yet about before symptoms appear.

"There is a bit of a controversy about ... people who don't have any symptoms to what extent can they spread the virus," said Loeb. "There is still some controversy over that."