“Daunting” is how Hamilton Mayor Fred Eisenberger described provincial projections that 3,000 to 15,000 Ontarians will die over the next two years from COVID-19 — even with physical distancing measures in place.

“It’s stunning,” said Eisenberger on Friday. “I think most people are starting to realize that this is far more serious than they originally anticipated and that message is finally hitting home. At some point you are at a loss for words because this is such an unprecedented scenario. It’s a bad movie getting worse.”

In the face of projections that 80,000 people in Ontario will have COVID-19 by the end of the April, Hamilton’s medical officer of health said it’s more important than ever to heed public health advice and stay home.

“It’s time to double down,” Dr. Elizabeth Richardson said.

Facing the prospect of 1,600 deaths in April alone, the premier closed more businesses, including cannabis stores and construction sites (except for critical projects). The new list of essential businesses is at ontario.ca/page/list-essential-workplaces.

The province also restricted some businesses to curbside pickup and delivery, including hardware stores, vehicles parts, pet stores, office supplies and computer products.

“These numbers are stark and they are sobering,” said Premier Doug Ford. “Over 1,600 people could be dead by the end of April. That is 50 a day or that is two people every hour.”

The city is expected to pass a bylaw April 8 that would impose fines on those who don’t stay two metres apart in public. Police are already giving out fines to groups of more than five and those who go into closed areas such as golf courses and the escarpment stairs.

“The degree to which this can get worse is daunting,” Eisenberger said about the projections. “I’m worried, like most people are, and rightfully so. But we shouldn’t be so worried that we don’t act ... We can have a dramatic impact on those numbers.”

The projections are particularly alarming when it comes to intensive-care unit (ICU) capacity, because even with 900 additional beds dedicated to COVID-19 across the province, it’s close to the line for even the best-case scenario.

“That line brushes right up against what we are we are able to expand our health-care system to today,” said Matthew Anderson, CEO of Ontario Health.

When it comes to the worst-case scenario, ICU capacity doesn’t even come close.

“Fairly soon, in the April to early May time frame, it will push beyond the capacity we can bring,” said Anderson. “We are trying everything we can to increase the capacity we have to respond to this disease, however, we need everyone to play their part. We have to try to keep the prevalence of this disease to a minimum to allow our health-care system to able to support those who need it.”

Richardson says there is no Hamilton projections to compare with the province. She also said that she doesn’t know the specific details of how Hamilton’s hospitals plan to create enough capacity to cope with COVID-19.

So far, Hamilton Health Sciences (HHS) and St Joseph’s Healthcare have only shared vague surge plans with the public without providing details. HHS also refuses to say where COVID-19 patients are currently being hospitalized.

The lack of detailed information is in contrast with the province, which, on Friday, continued to stress the importance of being upfront during a pandemic.

“We feel its important to be transparent with the public about the scale of the challenges which together we are facing and the important work we all need to do to help flatten the curve,” said Dr. Peter Donnelly, CEO of Public Health Ontario. “How this outbreak unfolds is in the hands of the public.”

Ontario’s Information and Privacy Commissioner, Brian Beamish, told Spectator reporter Katrina Clarke that public health’s delay in reporting the city’s second COVID-19 death — days after the resident died at Heritage Green Nursing Home on March 30 — “seems unreasonable.”

“During this public health crisis, people are depending on public health offices to be transparent,” he said.

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau mentioned Hamilton in his daily address for the second day in a row. On Thursday, he mentioned a warehouse full of personal protective equipment in Hamilton. On Friday, he referenced a local organization while he announced $100 million for food banks.

“The staff at the Neighbour to Neighbour food bank in Hamilton told us they are getting more and more calls and it’s overwhelming for the volunteers, who are spread really thin and working overtime to help their community,” Trudeau said.

The federal government is also moving up its supplement to the GST credit — to help low-income people — to April instead of May.

Trudeau continued to refuse to provide the federal projections.

Hamilton’s COVID-19 confirmed cases continued to climb by 11 on Friday to 138, while Halton increased by 19 cases to 100.

Ontario now has 3,255 confirmed cases of COVID-19, up from 2,793 on Thursday.

However, only high-priority groups are tested for the virus.

“There clearly are many cases in the province that we don’t know about,” said Donnelly. “Many people, particularly young people, can have this disease in a very mild form. They hardly realize that they’ve got it and therefore the danger is they can spread it to someone else quite innocently.”

The projections showed how vulnerable long-term care residents and other seniors in the community are to COVID-19, with a death rate of 16 per cent for those over the age of 80.

Donnelly said the province moved very quickly in March to close schools and businesses when the projections showed 100,000 people would die over the next two years — including 6,000 in April alone — if there were no physical distancing measures in place.

Provincewide, there have been 67 deaths so far including two in Hamilton and one in Halton.

The projections also suggest the number of people ill in April could drop to 12,500 from 80,000 if more restrictions were put in place. With no interventions, it would have been 300,000.

There were no answers Friday on how long physical distancing restrictions will have to be in place considering the projections are over two years with up to three waves of the virus.

Eisenberger said it’s important not to be “paralyzed” by the “shocking” projections.

“You go from being daunted and worry to action,” he said. “Action is what we need.”